Parlay Arbitrage Strategy

Ever wondered if doubles or parlays can be used in arbitrage betting? The answer is yes! Read on to learn how it works, the calculations involved, and the potential risks of this strategy.

The Math Behind the Parlay Arbitrage Strategy

Why does this work and how?

Many bettors don’t realize that they can adjust individual odds within a parlay as long as the overall ticket odds remain unchanged.

The key to this strategy is covering only the risk of each leg while compounding the “saved odds” into the final leg.

Let me show you in an example below;

The more you save per leg, the stronger the snowball effect becomes. This applies to value betting as well, the more +EV bets you stack in a parlay, the greater the overall edge.

While this will not help you get around bookmaker limitations, it will get you around the three or two games per ticket rules on some local bookmakers and potentially even extend the life of your accounts. But at the same time, winning a massive parlay will also alert the bookmaker to take a closer look at you.

There are countless ways to exploit this kind of stuff, just think outside the box for once and play around with the calculators.

Mixing +EV bets, low-hold bets, and even some -EV bets across multiple sports, pre-match and in-play, incorporating different bonuses, for example, cashback on turnover with brokers/sharps, rebates, acca insurances, bonuses to winnings and so on.

If you still don’t get it, no worries, just watch the video or keep reading the article. Once you get the gist of it, it gets really simple. The video is a little awkward this time around, as some of the formulas have changed since, but it is still relevant.

Getting Started

To access the parlay arbitrage calculator, navigate to this betting spreadsheet. Once inside, navigate to the Betting Calculators section and click on the first link.

Once you are in the correct spreadsheet, make a copy of it, so you can freely adjust the odds – in the menu, click File. Then click Make a copy. Change the name and select where you want to put in the new file and click OK.

The calculator is now tied to your Google account and you can make changes to it, but keep in mind that if I make an update to any of the calculators, you will need to create another copy if you want to take advantage of new functions.

Doubles Arbitrage Calculator

The first calculator we will take a look is the Doubles arbitrage calculator.

At first glance, the interface might seem overwhelming, but it’s actually quite simple once you understand the core concepts.

The first step in this strategy is identifying two arbitrage bets.

The value part of the arb, the one that’s out of sync with the market, must be placed with the same bookmaker, while the cover part of the arb can be placed with any bookmaker.

Additionally:

• The games must not start at the same time.
• You need to know the full result of the previous leg before covering the next one.
• Ensure you have enough funds to cover the second leg of the ticket.
• You must be familiar with the markets or bookmakers you are betting on; this strategy is not beginner-friendly.
• It’s advisable to have access to a betting broker or a good odds comparison service.

Once you’ve found two arbs that meet these criteria, you can add them to the calculator.

Let’s assume you found two arbitrage bets:

• First arbitrage: 2.14 and 1.95
• Second arbitrage: 1.66 and 2.77
• Total stake: 50 EUR

Now add them into the calculator like you see on the image below.

You also need to cover the first leg of the double on another bookmaker. You can find the required stake under the “Leg 1 – Initial Steps / Bets” scenario.

Now you’re done with the first part of this strategy. There are two possible scenarios:

• If the first leg of the double loses, you’ve won on the cover bookmaker, and no money is lost.
• If the first leg wins, you now have a 6% arbitrage opportunity, but you still need to cover it.

If the first leg of the double won, you can see the full cover stake under the “Leg 2 – First Bet Wins” scenario.

After you place the cover, you’re completely done. Now, let’s take a quick look at the calculations and how you would do if you used the odds from the example before.

If you placed two separate arbs, you would make just a little over 5 EUR. However, with this strategy, you can make more than double that amount.

Additionally, some bookmakers, like CopyBet and Bet365, offer bonus percentages on winnings, so you could receive an extra 2.5% or 5% on top of your profits.

• You can see the full list of all bookmakers offering accumulator bonuses here.

This calculator comes in two versions: the standard one (the one we discussed above) and a version where the first leg odds are unlocked, allowing you to manually adjust the value of the first arb.

Doubles Arbitrage Calculator – Leg 1 Unlocked

You enter the odds and stake the same way you did with the previous version. The only difference is under the “Leg 1 – Initial Steps / Bets” scenario, where you can now manually adjust the odds.

This means you can manually adjust the odds within the double however you like, which is useful if you want to secure some profit from the first leg, ensuring you’re not completely wasting your time.

Some bookmakers, especially local ones, may require you to place at least three selections per ticket. The next calculator is designed for this type of bookmaker, but it can, of course, be used anywhere.

Parlay Arbitrage Calculator

The strategy and requirements are the same as with the previous two calculators: the games must not start at the same time, you need to know the full result of the previous leg before covering the next one, and having access to a betting broker or an odds comparison service to get the best possible odds is highly advantageous.

The only difference is that you need one additional leg, turning the ticket from a double into a treble.

You input the odds and stake the same way as before, cover the risk of the first leg, but instead of waiting for just one outcome, you now need to wait for an additional one, increasing your time commitment even further.

Having enough money for the other part of the arbs becomes even more important now, as you may need to cover a total of three legs.

Parlay Arbitrage Calculator – Leg 1 and 2 Unlocked

As with the doubles calculator, you can also use the unlocked version of the trebles arbitrage calculator, where you can manually change the odds of the first two legs.

Same instructions as before, useful if you want to take some money out before the last leg.

The Risks of Doubles / Parlay Arbitrage Strategy

The most obvious risk is that the odds of the later legs could move in the opposite direction. One way to mitigate this risk is by betting on more stable markets, where your personal knowledge of markets and bookmakers comes into play.

Another approach is to use a combination of high and low odds, with the bigger odds arb placed in the first spot of the double or parlay.

For example, if you secure a 2.50 arb with cover odds of 1.95 it will turn a negative arb of -2.78% (1.44 – 3.00) into a 9,65% arb (adjusted odds of 1.754 – 3.00).

However, if you place the lower odds first (1.44 with a cover of 3.55), and the second leg odds move down to -2.50% (2.50 – 1.60), you still end up with a negative arb of -1.16%.

If you plan on using this accumulator arbitrage betting strategy, make sure to experiment with the calculator, test different scenarios, paper trade, and familiarize yourself with your bookmakers, markets, and so on, this is not a strategy for complete beginners.

However, once you grasp the basics, it becomes relatively easy to understand.

Doubles / Trebles +EV Calculator

I have also created the parlay +EV calculator. This is the simplest one of the calculators mentioned in this article. When you combine two or more value bets, the overall value is multiplied. The combined value increases as each value bet is added.

Pinnacle Odds Dropper Filter for +EV Parlays

Personally, I use the +EV parlays heavily during the weekends, mostly with the lower odds and across multiple sports, to keep my overall variance in check.

Of course, you could just set up normal alerts and parlay everything you see, but I wouldn’t recommend that to a complete beginner, as the variance can hit you quite hard.

Massive thanks to Pinnacle Odds Dropper for sponsoring this kind of content!

Frequently Asked Questions